Intuitive Predictions

Posted on March 30, 2015 by davidbdale

Our Counterintuitive World

1. True or False. What occurs in the world is not always reasonable, logical, or right. Even so, it might be true.

2. Reasonable or Unreasonable. People act for reasons other than logic; among them sympathy, loyalty, hope, fear, vested interest, greed, and ineptitude.

3. Right or Wrong. Decisions based on logic or reason can be ethical and moral, unethical or immoral.

Your Predictions

Before hearing tonight’s lecture or reading the associated article, respond in three ways to the Premises below.

First: declare whether the statements made appear to be True or False (you could also answer Likely or Unlikely).

Second: declare whether the statements appear to be Reasonable or Unreasonable (or if you prefer: Batshit Crazy, or Not Insane).

Third: Declare the statements’ moral or ethical position to be Good or Bad. (If the statement doesn’t permit a moral judgment, you could still pronounce it a Good thing, or fundamentally Just Wrong.)

Respond in three ways for each Premise.

1. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
2. False / Reasonable / Good
3. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. True / Not Crazy / Right

Of course, in paradise, the Reasonable would always be True and Good, and the Crazy would always be Untrue, and universally recognized as Bad. But we know better, don’t we? At the end of class, return to your predictions. How many of your expectations were met?

The Premises

1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year-and-a-half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
37.  In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.

Unknown's avatar

About davidbdale

What should I call you? I prefer David or Dave, but students uncomfortable with first names can call me Professor or Mister Hodges. My ESL students' charming solution, "Mister David" is my favorite by far.
This entry was posted in Counterintuitive Topics, David Hodges, davidbdale, Mammogram Unit, Professor Post, Writing Lessons. Bookmark the permalink.

20 Responses to Intuitive Predictions

  1. YouDontKnowWhoIAmComp2's avatar YouDontKnowWhoIAmComp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:30 pm

    1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    3. True/ Not crazy/ Good
    4. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    5. Likely/ Reasonable/Good
    6. Unlikely/ unreasonable/Bad
    7. Likely/ Reasonable/Right
    8.Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    9. Unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    10. False/ Crazy/ Wrong
    11. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    12. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    13. True/ Unreasonable/wrong
    14. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ bad
    15. True/ reasonable/ right
    16. False/ Crazy/ Wrong
    17. True/ Reasonable/ Good
    18. Likely/ Reasonable/ good
    19. Likely/ reasonable/good
    20. Unlikely/ unreasonable/bad
    21. True/ Reasonable/ bad
    22. True/ reasonable/bad
    23. True/ Unreasonable/ bad
    24.Likely/ reasonable/ right
    25. Likely/ reasonable/ right
    26. Likely/ not crazy/ right
    27. Likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    28. Likely/ reasonable/ wrong
    29. Likely/ reasonable/ right
    30. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    31. Unlikely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    32. Likely/ reasonable/ right
    33. Unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    34. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    35. Likely/ reasonable/ good
    36. Likely/ reasonable/ good
    37. True/ reasonable/ bad
    38. True/ reasonable/ good
    39. True/ crazy/ wrong
    40. True/ reasonable/ bad
    41. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    42. True/ reasonable/ bad
    43. False/ unreasonable/ bad
    44. True/ unreasonable/ bad
    45. Likely/ reasonable/ good
    46. True/ unreasonable/ bad
    47. True/ reasonable/ good
    48. Likely/ reasonable/ right
    49. Likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    50. Likely/ reasonable/ good

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  2. cptpoostaincomp2's avatar cptpoostaincomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:32 pm

    1. not likely/ crazy/ immoral
    2. not likely/ crazy/ immoral – context needed
    3. false/ loco/ immoral
    4. slightly true/ reasonable/moral
    5. most likely/ makes sense/ immoral but justified
    6. false/ insane/ immoral
    7. false/ insane/ immoral
    8. true/ sane/ moral
    9. true/ sane/ moral
    10. likely/ sane/ moral
    11. has to be true/ sane/ moral
    12. more or less/ reasonable/ moral/immoral – need more context
    13. true/ reasonable/ immoral
    14. true/ makes sense/ moral
    15. true/ reasonable/ moral
    16. not likely/ crazy/ immoral
    17. seems true/ justified/ moral
    18. true/ reasonable/ moral
    19.true/ reasonable/ immoral – hospitals shouldn’t “compete”
    20. false/ insane/ immoral
    21. true/ reasonable/ moral
    22. likely/ reasonable/ moral
    23. i believe it/ crazy/ immoral
    24. probably/ they’re women/ immoral
    25. again it’s believable/ crazy/ immoral
    26. true/ reasonable/ moral
    27. likely/reasonable/ moral
    28. both maybe? / reasons exist for both sides/ moral either way – everyone is entitled to their own opinions.
    29. false/ irrational/ moral
    30. false/ irrational/ moral
    31. false/ insane/ immoral
    32. true/ logical/ moral
    33. false/ irrational/ immoral
    34. false/ counter-intuitive/immoral
    35. true / reasonable/ moral
    36. true/ reasonable/ moral
    37. false/ irrational/ immoral
    38. true/ makes sense/ slightly immoral
    39. true/ reasonable/ immoral
    40. false/ irrational/ immoral
    41. false/ unreasonable/ immoral
    42. true/ irrational/ immoral
    43. true/ rational/ moral
    44. likely/ reasonable/ moral
    45. false/ irrational/ immoral
    46. true/ reasonable/ moral – martyr?
    47. true/ reasonable/ moral
    48. not likely / not reasonable/ immoral
    49. false/ insane/ immoral
    50. true/ would make sense/ moral

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  3. caspertheghostcomp2's avatar caspertheghostcomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:38 pm

    1. True, unreasonable, bad
    2. true, unreasonable, horrible
    3. False, unreasonable, bad
    4. true, reasonable, good
    5. true, reasonable, good
    6. false, crazy, wrong
    7. true, reasonable, good
    8. false, unreasonable, wrong
    9. true, reasonable wrong
    10. False, unreasonable, wrong
    11. true, reasonable, good
    12. true, reasonable right
    13. false, reasonable wrong
    14. true unreasonable wrong
    15. true reasonable right
    16. true, reasonable right
    17. true reasonable right
    18. true reasonable right
    19. false reasonable wrong
    20. true unreasonable right
    21. true reasonable wrong
    22. false unreasonable right
    23. false reasonable right
    24. true reasonable right
    25. false reasonable wrong
    26. true, unreasonable rong
    27. true, reasonable wrong
    28. true unreasonable right
    29. true, unreasonable wrong
    30. false, reasonable, right
    31. true, reasonable right
    32. true, reasonable right
    33. false, reasonable right
    34. false, unreasonable, wrong
    35. false, reasonable, right
    36. true, reasonable right
    37. false unreasonable wrong
    38. true, reasonable right
    39. false unreasonable wrong
    40. false unreasonable wrong
    41. false unreasonable right
    42. true reasonable right
    43. true reasonable right
    44. false unreasonable wrong
    45. false unreasonable wrong
    46. false reasonable right
    47. true reasonable right
    48. true reasonable right
    49. false unreasonable wrong
    50. false reasonable wrong

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  4. thatdudecomp2's avatar thatdudecomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:39 pm

    1.true/unreasonable/bad
    2.true/unreasonable/bad
    3.false/unreasonable/bad
    4.false/reasonable/good
    5.true/unreasonable/bad
    6.true/unreasonable/bad
    7. true/reasonable/good
    8.true/reasonable/good
    9.flase/unreasonable/bad
    10.false/unreasable/bad
    11.false/reasonable/good
    12.true/reasonable/good
    13.true/unreasonable/bad
    14.true/reasonable/bad
    15.true/reasonable/good
    16. true/reasonable/good
    17.true/reasonable/good
    18.false/unreasonable/bad
    19.true/reasonable/good
    20.false/unreasonable/bad
    21.true/reasonable/good
    22.true/reasonable/good
    23.true/unreasonable/bad
    24.true/reasonable/bad
    25.true/reasonable/good
    26.false/unreasonable/bad
    27.true/reasonable/bad
    28.true/reasonable/good
    29.true/unreasonable/bad
    30.false/reasonable/good
    31.true/reasonable/good
    32.true/reasonable/good
    33.true/reasonable/good
    34.true/reasonable/good
    35.false/reasonable/good
    36.true/reasonable/good
    37.true/unreasonable/bad
    38.true/reasonable/good
    39.false/unreasonable/bad
    40.true/reasonable/bad
    41.false/unreasonable/bad
    42.false/unreasonable/bad
    43.false/unreasonable/good
    44.false/unreasonable/bad
    45.false/unreasonable/bad
    46.true/reasonable/good
    47.true/reasonable/good
    48.true/reasonable/good
    49.false/unreasonable/bad
    50.true/reasonable/good

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  5. thegreatestpenn's avatar thegreatestpenn says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:39 pm

    1. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    2. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    3. False / Unreasonable / Good (Doctor doing more good than bad, have others go over the negatives, morally good to keep good doctors)
    4. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    5. False / Unreasonable / Good
    6. True / Reasonable / Good
    7. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    8. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    9. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    10. False / Reasonable / Good (The idea of following up with patients would be good)
    11. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    12. True / Reasonable / Bad
    13. False / Reasonable / Bad
    14. True / Not Insane / Good
    15. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    16. False / Reasonable / Good
    17. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    18. False / Reasonable / Bad
    19. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    20. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    21. False / Reasonable / Bad
    22. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    23. False / Reasonable / Bad
    24. True / Reasonable / Good
    25. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    26. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    27. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    28. True / Reasonable / Bad
    29. False / Unreasonable / Good
    30. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    31. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    32. True / Reasonable / Bad
    33. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    34. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    35. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    36. True / Reasonable / Good
    37. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    38. True / Unreasonable / Good
    39. True / Reasonable / Bad
    40. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    41. False / Reasonable / Good
    42. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    43. Likely / Reasonable / Good
    44. True / Unreasonable / Bad
    45. True / Unreasonable / Good
    46. True / Reasonable / Good
    47. True / Reasonable / Good
    48. False / Unreasonable / Good
    49. False / Unreasonable / Bad
    50. True / Unreasonable / Good

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  6. skybluecomp2's avatar skybluecomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:41 pm

    1. False/Reasonable/Wrong
    2. False/Reasonable/ Right
    3. False/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    4. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    5. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    6. False/Unreasonable/ Wrong
    7. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    8. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    9. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    10. False/ Reasonable/ Right
    11. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    12. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    13. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    14. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    15. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    16. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    17. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    18. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    19. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    20. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    21. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    22. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    23. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    24. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    25. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    26. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    27. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    28. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    29. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    30. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    31. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    32. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    33. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    34. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    35. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    36. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    37. False/ Unreasonable/Wrong
    38. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    39. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    40. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    41. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    42. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    43. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    44. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    45. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    46. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    47. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    48. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    49. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    50. True/ Reasonable/ Right

    Like

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  7. moparcomp2's avatar moparcomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:41 pm

    1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    4. True/Reasonable/Good
    5. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    6. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    7. True/Reasonable/Good
    8. True/Reasonable/Good
    9. True/Reasonable/Bad
    10. True/Reasonable/Good
    11. True/Reasonable/Good
    12. True/Reasonable/Bad
    13. True/Reasonable/Good
    14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    16. False/Reasonable/Bad
    17. False/Unreasonable/Good
    18. True/Reasonable/Good
    19. True/Reasonable/Good
    20. True/Reasonable/Bad
    21. True/Reasonable/Bad
    22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    23. True/Reasonable/Good
    24. True/Reasonable/Good
    25. True/Reasonable/Good
    26. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    27. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    28. True/Reasonable/Good
    29. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. True/Reasonable/Good
    36. True/Reasonable/Good
    37. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    38. True/Reasonable/Good
    39. True/Reasonable/Bad
    40. True/Reasonable/Bad
    41. True/Reasonable/Bad
    42. True/Reasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Good
    44. True/Reasonable/Good
    45. True/Reasonable/Bad
    46. True/Unreasonable/Good
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. True/Reasonable/Good
    49. False/Reasonable/Bad
    50. True/Reasonable/Good

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  8. hashmeesh's avatar hashmeesh says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:42 pm

    1.true/unreasonable/bad
    2.true/unreasonable/bad
    3.false/unreasonable/bad
    4.false/reasonable/bad
    5.true/reasonable/bad
    6.likely/reasonable/bad
    7.true/reasonable/good
    8.true/reasonable/good
    9.true/reasonable/bad
    10.false/unreasonable/bad
    11.false/unreasonable/bad
    12.true/reasonable/good
    13.likely/reasonable/bad
    14.likely/unreasonable/bad
    15.likely/reasonable/good
    16.unlikely/unreasonable/bad
    17.likely/reasonable/good
    18.likely/reasonable/good
    19.likely/reasonable/bad
    20.false/unreasonable/bad
    21.true/ reasonable/ bad
    22.true/ reasonable/bad
    23.true/ unreasonable/ bad
    24.likely/ reasonable/ right
    25. likely/ reasonable/ right
    26. likely/ reasonable/ right
    27. likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    28. likely/ reasonable/ wrong
    29. likely/ reasonable/ right
    30. false/ unreasonable/ wrong
    31. unlikely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    32. likely/ reasonable/ right
    33. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    34. false/ unreasonable/ wrong
    35. likely/ reasonable/ good
    36. likely/ reasonable/ good
    37. true/ reasonable/ bad
    38. true/ reasonable/ good
    39. true/ unreasonable/ wrong
    40. true/ reasonable/ bad
    41. false/ unreasonable/ wrong
    42. true/ reasonable/ bad
    43. false/ unreasonable/ bad
    44. true/ unreasonable/ bad
    45. likely/ reasonable/ good
    46. true/ unreasonable/ bad
    47. true/ reasonable/ good
    48. likely/ reasonable/ right
    49. likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    50. likely/ reasonable/ good

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  9. taddocomp2's avatar taddocomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:42 pm

    1. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    2. True/Reasonable/Right
    3. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    4. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    5. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    6. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    7. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    8. True/Reasonable/Right
    9. False/Reasonable/Right
    10. True/Reasonable/Right
    11. True/Reasonable/Right
    12. False/Reasonable/Right
    13. False/Reasonable/Wrong
    14. False/Reasonable/Wrong
    15. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    16. False/Reasonable/Right
    17. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    18. True/Reasonable/Right
    19. True/Reasonable/Right
    20. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    21. False/Reasonable/Wrong
    22. True/Reasonable/Right
    23. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    24. True/Reasonable/Right
    25. True/Reasonable/Right
    26. rue/Reasonable/Right
    27. True/Reasonable/Right
    28. True/Reasonable/Right
    29. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    30. True/Reasonable/Right
    31. True/Reasonable/Right
    32. True/Reasonable/Right
    33.

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  10. qdobacomp2's avatar qdobacomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:44 pm

    1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. False/Reasonable/Bad
    4. False/Reasonable/Bad
    5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    7. True/Reasonable/Good
    8. True/Reasonable/Good
    9. True/Reasonable/Bad
    10. True/Reasonable/Good
    11. True/Reasonable/Good
    12. True/Reasonable/Bad
    13. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    16. True/Reasonable/Good
    17. True/Reasonable/Good
    18. False/Reasonable/Good
    19. False/Reasonable/Good
    20. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    21. False/Reasonable/Bad
    22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    23. False/Reasonable/Bad
    24. True/Reasonable/Bad
    25. False/Reasonable/Bad
    26. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    27. True/Reasonable/Good
    28. False/Reasonable/Bad
    29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    30. True/Reasonable/Good
    31. True/Reasonable/Bad
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. True/Reasonable/Good
    36. True/Reasonable/Good
    37. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    38. True/Reasonable/Good
    39. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    40. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    41. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    42. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Good
    44. True/Reasonable/Good
    45. False/Reasonable/Good
    46. True/Reasonable/Bad
    47. False/Unreasonable/Good
    48. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    50. False/Reasonable/Good

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  11. cyphercomp2's avatar cyphercomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:45 pm

    1. True/ unreasonable/ bad

    2. True (in that, they should be) / reasonable / right

    3. False (over what span of time did he miss them? hundreds of tumors in one patient or many? ten in one or many?) / unreasonable / wrong

    4. False/ unreasonable / right (read more)

    5. True (only because it narrows the readers down to the highest achievers) but False (because it is not improving the individual, only the group, though the stakes are higher among the chosen) / reasonable results would be produced / ethical

    6. true (it would make sense in terms of money) / reasonable to assume / if it is truly the best, it is wrong and unethical, but if it only adds possibilities just like other techniques…it could be considered right

    7. False (there would be a lot of problems coming from the thousands of in debt doctors being fired for lack of experience) / unreasonable / wrong (it would cut off any chance of a learning curve in terms of the doctor’s)

    8. False (the accuracy may not be known or double checked in the aftermath), reasonable to assume the accuracy is decent / ethical if time is considered, or a lack thereof

    9. True / reasonable / still ethical to have all of those doctors rather than not

    10. True / reasonable to assume that close would be desired and lucrative both in money and in mind / ethical and right

    11. True / reasonable to learn from mistakes and build knowledge / ethical and right

    12. if number 9 is true than this is false / however it is reasonable as a teaching tool (but not by shame) / it would be wrong for it to be shameful, this would have a negative impact on judgment in the future, so this is wrong if the intent is to be shameful, but right if it may have been shameful once or twice but the majority accepted the possibility of failure in the past and took the critical remarks

    13. True (if the average is less than that by the majority of other readers) / reasonable / ethical to funnel more patients through the highest performing practice

    14. True / reasonable / right

    15. false / but reasonable to assume / right

    16. False / but reasonable to assume / right

    17.

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  12. sallcomp2's avatar sallcomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:46 pm

    1) False, Unreasonable, Wrong
    2) Likely, Bad, Unreasonable
    3) Batshit Crazy, Unreasonable, Wrong
    4) False, Wrong, Unreasonable
    5) True, Reasonable, Not Crazy
    6) Unlikely, Wrong,
    7) Not Crazy, Reasonable, Likely
    8) Likely, Unreasonable, Wrong
    9) True, Reasonable, Not Crazy
    10) True. Reasonable, Good
    11) True, Good, Not Crazy
    12) False, Wrong, Not Crazy
    13) True, Unreasonable, Wrong
    14) True
    15) False
    16) False, Crazy
    17) True, Not Crazy
    18) True, Likely
    19) True, Bad
    20) False,
    21)True, Reasonable, Good
    22)True, Bad
    23) False, Wrong
    24) True
    25) True
    26) True, Reasonable,
    27) False, Reasonable
    28) False, Not Crazy
    30) True, Reasonable, Good
    31) True
    32) False, Bad
    33) True, Bad
    34) True, Likely
    35) True, Reasonable
    36) True, Unreasonable, Bad
    37) False,
    38) True, Likely, Reasonable
    39) True, Bad, Unreasonable
    40) True, Bad, Unreasonable
    41) True, Likely, Not Crazy
    42) Likely, Reasonable, Not Crazy
    43) False, Unreasonable, Crazy
    44) True, Bad, Wrong
    45) Likely, Good, Right
    46) Reasonable, Right, Not Crazy
    47) False, Wrong, Unlikely
    48)True, Reasonable, Most likely
    49) True, Likely, Good
    50) True, Reasonable, Good

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  13. moneytrees4's avatar moneytrees4 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:46 pm

    1. Doctors who perform these test do not call back to check on the patient. I am guessing that it is probably because they don’t get paid to. Once the patient leaves the hospital, treatment for them is over. However this is wrong because a lot of good things can come of calling the patient back. For starters you can make sure the patient is feeling any different from last time. Second, you could see how accurate the test was. Third, if the patient did have an abnormity could start treatment sooner.

    2. It is batshit crazy that these doctors do not follow up with their patients. This should be absolutely mandatory. So much information can come of just a simple check up.

    3. Following up with patients would be a good thing to do. It could help a lot of people possibly save a few lives.

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  14. tagfcomp2's avatar tagfcomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:46 pm

    1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    4. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    5. True/Reasonable/Good
    6. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    7. True/Reasonable/Good
    8. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    9. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    10. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    11. True/Reasonable/Good
    12. True/Reasonable/Good
    13. True/Reasonable/Good
    14. True/Reasonable/Good
    15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    16. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    17. True/Reasonable/Good
    18. True/Reasonable/Good
    19. True/Reasonable/Good
    20. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    21. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    23. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    24. True/Reasonable/Good
    25. True/Reasonable/Good
    26. True/Reasonable/Good
    27. True/Reasonable/Good
    28. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    31. False/Reasonable/Good
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. True/Reasonable/Good
    36. True/Reasonable/Good
    37. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    38. True/Reasonable/Good
    39. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    40. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    41. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    42. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Good
    44. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    45. True/Reasonable/Good
    46. True/Reasonable/Good
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. True/Reasonable/Good
    49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    50. False/Unreasonable/Bad… Every day is equally good to check for hazardous cancer.

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  15. Albert's avatar albert0105comp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 7:47 pm

    1. True/ Unreasonable/bad
    2. True/ reasonable/ good
    3. Unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
    4.false/ reasonable/ good
    5. likely/ reasonable/ good
    6. unlikely/unreasonable/ wrong
    7. true/ reasonable/ right
    8. likely/ reasonable/ right
    9. unlikely/ crazy/ wrong
    10.likely/ not crazy/ right
    11. true/ reasonable/ good
    12. likely/ reasonable/ good
    13. true/ not crazy/ good
    14. not likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    15. false/ crazy/ bad
    16.true/ reasonable/ right
    17. likely/ reasonable/ good
    18. likely/ reasonable/ good
    19. not likely/reasonable/ bad
    20. likely/ unreasonable/ bad
    21. likely/ reasonable/ good
    22.likely/ not crazy/ bad
    23. likely/ crazy/ bad
    24. true/ reasonable/ bad
    25. likely/ reasonable/ right
    26. unlikely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    27. likely/ not crazy/ bad
    28. unlikely/ reasonable/ bad
    29. false/ unreasonable/ bad
    30. true/ reasonable/ bad
    31. likely/ reasonable/ good
    32. unlikely/ reasonable/ good
    33. false/ creazy/ bad

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  16. betterthanyouincomp2's avatar betterthanyouincomp2 says:
    March 30, 2015 at 10:51 pm

    1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. False/Reasonable/Bad
    4. False/Reasonable/Bad
    5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    7. True/Reasonable/Good
    8. True/Reasonable/Good
    9. True/Reasonable/Bad
    10. True/Reasonable/Good
    11. True/Reasonable/Good
    12. True/Reasonable/Bad
    13. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    16. True/Reasonable/Good
    17. True/Reasonable/Good
    18. False/Reasonable/Good
    19. False/Reasonable/Good
    20. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    21. False/Reasonable/Bad
    22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    23. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    24. True/Reasonable/Good
    25. True/Reasonable/Good
    26. True/Reasonable/Good
    27. True/Reasonable/Good
    28. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    31. False/Reasonable/Good
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. True/Reasonable/Good
    36. True/Reasonable/Good
    37. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    38. True/Reasonable/Good
    39. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    40. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    41. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    42. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Good
    44. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    45. True/Reasonable/Good
    46. True/Reasonable/Good
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. True/Reasonable/Good
    49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    50. False/Unreasonable/Bad

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  17. davidbdale's avatar davidbdale says:
    April 1, 2015 at 5:43 am

    As a first comparison, I scanned all the reactions to Statement 46, which said:
    46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.

    The Statement generated these responses:
    46. True/ unreasonable/ bad
    46. true/ reasonable/ moral – martyr?
    46. false reasonable right
    46. true/reasonable/good
    46. True / Reasonable / Good
    46. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    46. True/Unreasonable/Good
    46. true/ unreasonable/ bad
    46. True/Reasonable/Bad
    46) Reasonable, Right, Not Crazy
    46. True/Reasonable/Good
    46. True/Reasonable/Good

    First, I should say the Statement is accurate and true. Dr. Adcock did improve his team’s accuracy significantly; his own volume of readings did drop; and he did remove himself from the reading team because (since he wasn’t reading enough films to statistically demonstrate his accuracy) he had to assume he was missing cancers. Most of us agreed on that.

    All but five of us thought his decision was reasonable. After all, he had fired several other doctors whose volumes had dropped below testable; it seems the same standard should apply to all.

    The five who thought the decision was unreasonable might believe that Adcock is a good enough doctor, with enough experience, and with a conscience that keeps him from making bad decisions, so that removing himself from the team was unnecessary (an interpretation supported by Capt’s surmise that he might be acting like a martyr).

    The only answer that confuses me is the one commenter who thinks the decision was unreasonable but the outcome is moral or ethical. My take on that one is that it too is a reasonable way to think. The decision to remove himself from the team is probably overly cautious, maybe unnecessary (and therefore unreasonable), but in the business of detecting cancers, overcaution is certainly ethically defensible.

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