Our Counterintuitive World
1. True or False. What occurs in the world is not always reasonable, logical, or right. Even so, it might be true.
2. Reasonable or Unreasonable. People act for reasons other than logic; among them sympathy, loyalty, hope, fear, vested interest, greed, and ineptitude.
3. Right or Wrong. Decisions based on logic or reason can be ethical and moral, unethical or immoral.
Your Predictions
Before hearing tonight’s lecture or reading the associated article, respond in three ways to the Premises below.
First: declare whether the statements made appear to be True or False (you could also answer Likely or Unlikely).
Second: declare whether the statements appear to be Reasonable or Unreasonable (or if you prefer: Batshit Crazy, or Not Insane).
Third: Declare the statements’ moral or ethical position to be Good or Bad. (If the statement doesn’t permit a moral judgment, you could still pronounce it a Good thing, or fundamentally Just Wrong.)
Respond in three ways for each Premise.
1. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
2. False / Reasonable / Good
3. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. True / Not Crazy / Right
Of course, in paradise, the Reasonable would always be True and Good, and the Crazy would always be Untrue, and universally recognized as Bad. But we know better, don’t we? At the end of class, return to your predictions. How many of your expectations were met?
The Premises
1. If women knew how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms, they would stop getting mammograms.
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year-and-a-half, but who misses 10, should be fired.
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month shouldn’t read any at all.
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an unknowable number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are equally significant.
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year should be re-assigned to other work, since their sample size determine their accuracy.
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
43. Having two doctors read all films improves accuracy and drives down costs.
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally would reduce accuracy.
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
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Counterintuitive Spring 2024 
1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
3. True/ Not crazy/ Good
4. True/ Reasonable/ Good
5. Likely/ Reasonable/Good
6. Unlikely/ unreasonable/Bad
7. Likely/ Reasonable/Right
8.Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
9. Unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
10. False/ Crazy/ Wrong
11. True/ Reasonable/ Good
12. True/ Reasonable/ Good
13. True/ Unreasonable/wrong
14. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ bad
15. True/ reasonable/ right
16. False/ Crazy/ Wrong
17. True/ Reasonable/ Good
18. Likely/ Reasonable/ good
19. Likely/ reasonable/good
20. Unlikely/ unreasonable/bad
21. True/ Reasonable/ bad
22. True/ reasonable/bad
23. True/ Unreasonable/ bad
24.Likely/ reasonable/ right
25. Likely/ reasonable/ right
26. Likely/ not crazy/ right
27. Likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
28. Likely/ reasonable/ wrong
29. Likely/ reasonable/ right
30. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
31. Unlikely/ unreasonable/ wrong
32. Likely/ reasonable/ right
33. Unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
34. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
35. Likely/ reasonable/ good
36. Likely/ reasonable/ good
37. True/ reasonable/ bad
38. True/ reasonable/ good
39. True/ crazy/ wrong
40. True/ reasonable/ bad
41. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
42. True/ reasonable/ bad
43. False/ unreasonable/ bad
44. True/ unreasonable/ bad
45. Likely/ reasonable/ good
46. True/ unreasonable/ bad
47. True/ reasonable/ good
48. Likely/ reasonable/ right
49. Likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
50. Likely/ reasonable/ good
LikeLike
1. not likely/ crazy/ immoral
2. not likely/ crazy/ immoral – context needed
3. false/ loco/ immoral
4. slightly true/ reasonable/moral
5. most likely/ makes sense/ immoral but justified
6. false/ insane/ immoral
7. false/ insane/ immoral
8. true/ sane/ moral
9. true/ sane/ moral
10. likely/ sane/ moral
11. has to be true/ sane/ moral
12. more or less/ reasonable/ moral/immoral – need more context
13. true/ reasonable/ immoral
14. true/ makes sense/ moral
15. true/ reasonable/ moral
16. not likely/ crazy/ immoral
17. seems true/ justified/ moral
18. true/ reasonable/ moral
19.true/ reasonable/ immoral – hospitals shouldn’t “compete”
20. false/ insane/ immoral
21. true/ reasonable/ moral
22. likely/ reasonable/ moral
23. i believe it/ crazy/ immoral
24. probably/ they’re women/ immoral
25. again it’s believable/ crazy/ immoral
26. true/ reasonable/ moral
27. likely/reasonable/ moral
28. both maybe? / reasons exist for both sides/ moral either way – everyone is entitled to their own opinions.
29. false/ irrational/ moral
30. false/ irrational/ moral
31. false/ insane/ immoral
32. true/ logical/ moral
33. false/ irrational/ immoral
34. false/ counter-intuitive/immoral
35. true / reasonable/ moral
36. true/ reasonable/ moral
37. false/ irrational/ immoral
38. true/ makes sense/ slightly immoral
39. true/ reasonable/ immoral
40. false/ irrational/ immoral
41. false/ unreasonable/ immoral
42. true/ irrational/ immoral
43. true/ rational/ moral
44. likely/ reasonable/ moral
45. false/ irrational/ immoral
46. true/ reasonable/ moral – martyr?
47. true/ reasonable/ moral
48. not likely / not reasonable/ immoral
49. false/ insane/ immoral
50. true/ would make sense/ moral
LikeLike
1. True, unreasonable, bad
2. true, unreasonable, horrible
3. False, unreasonable, bad
4. true, reasonable, good
5. true, reasonable, good
6. false, crazy, wrong
7. true, reasonable, good
8. false, unreasonable, wrong
9. true, reasonable wrong
10. False, unreasonable, wrong
11. true, reasonable, good
12. true, reasonable right
13. false, reasonable wrong
14. true unreasonable wrong
15. true reasonable right
16. true, reasonable right
17. true reasonable right
18. true reasonable right
19. false reasonable wrong
20. true unreasonable right
21. true reasonable wrong
22. false unreasonable right
23. false reasonable right
24. true reasonable right
25. false reasonable wrong
26. true, unreasonable rong
27. true, reasonable wrong
28. true unreasonable right
29. true, unreasonable wrong
30. false, reasonable, right
31. true, reasonable right
32. true, reasonable right
33. false, reasonable right
34. false, unreasonable, wrong
35. false, reasonable, right
36. true, reasonable right
37. false unreasonable wrong
38. true, reasonable right
39. false unreasonable wrong
40. false unreasonable wrong
41. false unreasonable right
42. true reasonable right
43. true reasonable right
44. false unreasonable wrong
45. false unreasonable wrong
46. false reasonable right
47. true reasonable right
48. true reasonable right
49. false unreasonable wrong
50. false reasonable wrong
LikeLike
1.true/unreasonable/bad
2.true/unreasonable/bad
3.false/unreasonable/bad
4.false/reasonable/good
5.true/unreasonable/bad
6.true/unreasonable/bad
7. true/reasonable/good
8.true/reasonable/good
9.flase/unreasonable/bad
10.false/unreasable/bad
11.false/reasonable/good
12.true/reasonable/good
13.true/unreasonable/bad
14.true/reasonable/bad
15.true/reasonable/good
16. true/reasonable/good
17.true/reasonable/good
18.false/unreasonable/bad
19.true/reasonable/good
20.false/unreasonable/bad
21.true/reasonable/good
22.true/reasonable/good
23.true/unreasonable/bad
24.true/reasonable/bad
25.true/reasonable/good
26.false/unreasonable/bad
27.true/reasonable/bad
28.true/reasonable/good
29.true/unreasonable/bad
30.false/reasonable/good
31.true/reasonable/good
32.true/reasonable/good
33.true/reasonable/good
34.true/reasonable/good
35.false/reasonable/good
36.true/reasonable/good
37.true/unreasonable/bad
38.true/reasonable/good
39.false/unreasonable/bad
40.true/reasonable/bad
41.false/unreasonable/bad
42.false/unreasonable/bad
43.false/unreasonable/good
44.false/unreasonable/bad
45.false/unreasonable/bad
46.true/reasonable/good
47.true/reasonable/good
48.true/reasonable/good
49.false/unreasonable/bad
50.true/reasonable/good
LikeLike
1. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
2. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
3. False / Unreasonable / Good (Doctor doing more good than bad, have others go over the negatives, morally good to keep good doctors)
4. False / Unreasonable / Bad
5. False / Unreasonable / Good
6. True / Reasonable / Good
7. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
8. Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
9. False / Unreasonable / Bad
10. False / Reasonable / Good (The idea of following up with patients would be good)
11. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
12. True / Reasonable / Bad
13. False / Reasonable / Bad
14. True / Not Insane / Good
15. False / Unreasonable / Bad
16. False / Reasonable / Good
17. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
18. False / Reasonable / Bad
19. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
20. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
21. False / Reasonable / Bad
22. True / Unreasonable / Bad
23. False / Reasonable / Bad
24. True / Reasonable / Good
25. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
26. Likely / Reasonable / Bad
27. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
28. True / Reasonable / Bad
29. False / Unreasonable / Good
30. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
31. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
32. True / Reasonable / Bad
33. False / Unreasonable / Bad
34. False / Unreasonable / Bad
35. Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
36. True / Reasonable / Good
37. True / Unreasonable / Bad
38. True / Unreasonable / Good
39. True / Reasonable / Bad
40. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
41. False / Reasonable / Good
42. Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
43. Likely / Reasonable / Good
44. True / Unreasonable / Bad
45. True / Unreasonable / Good
46. True / Reasonable / Good
47. True / Reasonable / Good
48. False / Unreasonable / Good
49. False / Unreasonable / Bad
50. True / Unreasonable / Good
LikeLike
1. False/Reasonable/Wrong
2. False/Reasonable/ Right
3. False/ Reasonable/ Wrong
4. True/ Reasonable/ Right
5. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
6. False/Unreasonable/ Wrong
7. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
8. True/ Reasonable/ Right
9. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
10. False/ Reasonable/ Right
11. True/ Reasonable/ Right
12. True/ Reasonable/ Right
13. True/ Reasonable/ Right
14. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
15. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
16. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
17. True/ Reasonable/ Right
18. True/ Reasonable/ Right
19. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
20. True/ Reasonable/ Right
21. True/ Reasonable/ Right
22. True/ Reasonable/ Right
23. True/ Reasonable/ Right
24. True/ Reasonable/ Right
25. True/ Reasonable/ Right
26. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
27. True/ Reasonable/ Right
28. True/ Reasonable/ Right
29. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
30. True/ Reasonable/ Right
31. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
32. True/ Reasonable/ Right
33. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
34. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
35. True/ Reasonable/ Right
36. True/ Reasonable/ Right
37. False/ Unreasonable/Wrong
38. True/ Reasonable/ Right
39. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
40. True/ Reasonable/ Right
41. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
42. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
43. True/ Reasonable/ Right
44. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
45. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
46. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
47. True/ Reasonable/ Right
48. True/ Reasonable/ Right
49. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
50. True/ Reasonable/ Right
LikeLike
1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Unreasonable/Bad
3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
4. True/Reasonable/Good
5. True/Unreasonable/Bad
6. False/Unreasonable/Bad
7. True/Reasonable/Good
8. True/Reasonable/Good
9. True/Reasonable/Bad
10. True/Reasonable/Good
11. True/Reasonable/Good
12. True/Reasonable/Bad
13. True/Reasonable/Good
14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
16. False/Reasonable/Bad
17. False/Unreasonable/Good
18. True/Reasonable/Good
19. True/Reasonable/Good
20. True/Reasonable/Bad
21. True/Reasonable/Bad
22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
23. True/Reasonable/Good
24. True/Reasonable/Good
25. True/Reasonable/Good
26. False/Unreasonable/Bad
27. True/Unreasonable/Bad
28. True/Reasonable/Good
29. True/Unreasonable/Bad
30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
31. False/Unreasonable/Bad
32. True/Reasonable/Good
33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
35. True/Reasonable/Good
36. True/Reasonable/Good
37. True/Unreasonable/Bad
38. True/Reasonable/Good
39. True/Reasonable/Bad
40. True/Reasonable/Bad
41. True/Reasonable/Bad
42. True/Reasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Good
44. True/Reasonable/Good
45. True/Reasonable/Bad
46. True/Unreasonable/Good
47. True/Reasonable/Good
48. True/Reasonable/Good
49. False/Reasonable/Bad
50. True/Reasonable/Good
LikeLike
1.true/unreasonable/bad
2.true/unreasonable/bad
3.false/unreasonable/bad
4.false/reasonable/bad
5.true/reasonable/bad
6.likely/reasonable/bad
7.true/reasonable/good
8.true/reasonable/good
9.true/reasonable/bad
10.false/unreasonable/bad
11.false/unreasonable/bad
12.true/reasonable/good
13.likely/reasonable/bad
14.likely/unreasonable/bad
15.likely/reasonable/good
16.unlikely/unreasonable/bad
17.likely/reasonable/good
18.likely/reasonable/good
19.likely/reasonable/bad
20.false/unreasonable/bad
21.true/ reasonable/ bad
22.true/ reasonable/bad
23.true/ unreasonable/ bad
24.likely/ reasonable/ right
25. likely/ reasonable/ right
26. likely/ reasonable/ right
27. likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
28. likely/ reasonable/ wrong
29. likely/ reasonable/ right
30. false/ unreasonable/ wrong
31. unlikely/ unreasonable/ wrong
32. likely/ reasonable/ right
33. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
34. false/ unreasonable/ wrong
35. likely/ reasonable/ good
36. likely/ reasonable/ good
37. true/ reasonable/ bad
38. true/ reasonable/ good
39. true/ unreasonable/ wrong
40. true/ reasonable/ bad
41. false/ unreasonable/ wrong
42. true/ reasonable/ bad
43. false/ unreasonable/ bad
44. true/ unreasonable/ bad
45. likely/ reasonable/ good
46. true/ unreasonable/ bad
47. true/ reasonable/ good
48. likely/ reasonable/ right
49. likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
50. likely/ reasonable/ good
LikeLike
1. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
2. True/Reasonable/Right
3. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
4. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
5. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
6. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
7. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
8. True/Reasonable/Right
9. False/Reasonable/Right
10. True/Reasonable/Right
11. True/Reasonable/Right
12. False/Reasonable/Right
13. False/Reasonable/Wrong
14. False/Reasonable/Wrong
15. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
16. False/Reasonable/Right
17. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
18. True/Reasonable/Right
19. True/Reasonable/Right
20. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
21. False/Reasonable/Wrong
22. True/Reasonable/Right
23. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
24. True/Reasonable/Right
25. True/Reasonable/Right
26. rue/Reasonable/Right
27. True/Reasonable/Right
28. True/Reasonable/Right
29. False/Unreasonable/Wrong
30. True/Reasonable/Right
31. True/Reasonable/Right
32. True/Reasonable/Right
33.
LikeLike
1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Reasonable/Good
3. False/Reasonable/Bad
4. False/Reasonable/Bad
5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
7. True/Reasonable/Good
8. True/Reasonable/Good
9. True/Reasonable/Bad
10. True/Reasonable/Good
11. True/Reasonable/Good
12. True/Reasonable/Bad
13. False/Unreasonable/Bad
14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
15. True/Unreasonable/Bad
16. True/Reasonable/Good
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. False/Reasonable/Good
19. False/Reasonable/Good
20. True/Unreasonable/Bad
21. False/Reasonable/Bad
22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
23. False/Reasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Bad
25. False/Reasonable/Bad
26. False/Unreasonable/Bad
27. True/Reasonable/Good
28. False/Reasonable/Bad
29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. True/Reasonable/Good
31. True/Reasonable/Bad
32. True/Reasonable/Good
33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
35. True/Reasonable/Good
36. True/Reasonable/Good
37. False/Unreasonable/Bad
38. True/Reasonable/Good
39. False/Unreasonable/Bad
40. False/Unreasonable/Bad
41. False/Unreasonable/Bad
42. True/Unreasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Good
44. True/Reasonable/Good
45. False/Reasonable/Good
46. True/Reasonable/Bad
47. False/Unreasonable/Good
48. False/Unreasonable/Bad
49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
50. False/Reasonable/Good
LikeLike
1. True/ unreasonable/ bad
2. True (in that, they should be) / reasonable / right
3. False (over what span of time did he miss them? hundreds of tumors in one patient or many? ten in one or many?) / unreasonable / wrong
4. False/ unreasonable / right (read more)
5. True (only because it narrows the readers down to the highest achievers) but False (because it is not improving the individual, only the group, though the stakes are higher among the chosen) / reasonable results would be produced / ethical
6. true (it would make sense in terms of money) / reasonable to assume / if it is truly the best, it is wrong and unethical, but if it only adds possibilities just like other techniques…it could be considered right
7. False (there would be a lot of problems coming from the thousands of in debt doctors being fired for lack of experience) / unreasonable / wrong (it would cut off any chance of a learning curve in terms of the doctor’s)
8. False (the accuracy may not be known or double checked in the aftermath), reasonable to assume the accuracy is decent / ethical if time is considered, or a lack thereof
9. True / reasonable / still ethical to have all of those doctors rather than not
10. True / reasonable to assume that close would be desired and lucrative both in money and in mind / ethical and right
11. True / reasonable to learn from mistakes and build knowledge / ethical and right
12. if number 9 is true than this is false / however it is reasonable as a teaching tool (but not by shame) / it would be wrong for it to be shameful, this would have a negative impact on judgment in the future, so this is wrong if the intent is to be shameful, but right if it may have been shameful once or twice but the majority accepted the possibility of failure in the past and took the critical remarks
13. True (if the average is less than that by the majority of other readers) / reasonable / ethical to funnel more patients through the highest performing practice
14. True / reasonable / right
15. false / but reasonable to assume / right
16. False / but reasonable to assume / right
17.
LikeLike
I like your critical approach, cypher. It takes longer to write and to read, but it’s a much clearer indication of what you believe than the unmitigated labels permit.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Thank you for the feedback
LikeLike
1) False, Unreasonable, Wrong
2) Likely, Bad, Unreasonable
3) Batshit Crazy, Unreasonable, Wrong
4) False, Wrong, Unreasonable
5) True, Reasonable, Not Crazy
6) Unlikely, Wrong,
7) Not Crazy, Reasonable, Likely
8) Likely, Unreasonable, Wrong
9) True, Reasonable, Not Crazy
10) True. Reasonable, Good
11) True, Good, Not Crazy
12) False, Wrong, Not Crazy
13) True, Unreasonable, Wrong
14) True
15) False
16) False, Crazy
17) True, Not Crazy
18) True, Likely
19) True, Bad
20) False,
21)True, Reasonable, Good
22)True, Bad
23) False, Wrong
24) True
25) True
26) True, Reasonable,
27) False, Reasonable
28) False, Not Crazy
30) True, Reasonable, Good
31) True
32) False, Bad
33) True, Bad
34) True, Likely
35) True, Reasonable
36) True, Unreasonable, Bad
37) False,
38) True, Likely, Reasonable
39) True, Bad, Unreasonable
40) True, Bad, Unreasonable
41) True, Likely, Not Crazy
42) Likely, Reasonable, Not Crazy
43) False, Unreasonable, Crazy
44) True, Bad, Wrong
45) Likely, Good, Right
46) Reasonable, Right, Not Crazy
47) False, Wrong, Unlikely
48)True, Reasonable, Most likely
49) True, Likely, Good
50) True, Reasonable, Good
LikeLike
1. Doctors who perform these test do not call back to check on the patient. I am guessing that it is probably because they don’t get paid to. Once the patient leaves the hospital, treatment for them is over. However this is wrong because a lot of good things can come of calling the patient back. For starters you can make sure the patient is feeling any different from last time. Second, you could see how accurate the test was. Third, if the patient did have an abnormity could start treatment sooner.
2. It is batshit crazy that these doctors do not follow up with their patients. This should be absolutely mandatory. So much information can come of just a simple check up.
3. Following up with patients would be a good thing to do. It could help a lot of people possibly save a few lives.
LikeLike
An interesting set of reactions that make good points but don’t begin to respond to the actual assignment.
LikeLike
1. False/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Reasonable/Good
3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
4. False/Unreasonable/Bad
5. True/Reasonable/Good
6. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
7. True/Reasonable/Good
8. False/Unreasonable/Bad
9. True/Unreasonable/Bad
10. False/Unreasonable/Bad
11. True/Reasonable/Good
12. True/Reasonable/Good
13. True/Reasonable/Good
14. True/Reasonable/Good
15. False/Unreasonable/Bad
16. False/Unreasonable/Bad
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. True/Reasonable/Good
19. True/Reasonable/Good
20. True/Unreasonable/Bad
21. False/Unreasonable/Bad
22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
23. False/Unreasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Good
25. True/Reasonable/Good
26. True/Reasonable/Good
27. True/Reasonable/Good
28. True/Unreasonable/Bad
29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
31. False/Reasonable/Good
32. True/Reasonable/Good
33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
35. True/Reasonable/Good
36. True/Reasonable/Good
37. False/Unreasonable/Bad
38. True/Reasonable/Good
39. True/Unreasonable/Bad
40. False/Unreasonable/Bad
41. True/Unreasonable/Bad
42. False/Unreasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Good
44. True/Unreasonable/Bad
45. True/Reasonable/Good
46. True/Reasonable/Good
47. True/Reasonable/Good
48. True/Reasonable/Good
49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
50. False/Unreasonable/Bad… Every day is equally good to check for hazardous cancer.
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1. True/ Unreasonable/bad
2. True/ reasonable/ good
3. Unlikely/ unreasonable/ bad
4.false/ reasonable/ good
5. likely/ reasonable/ good
6. unlikely/unreasonable/ wrong
7. true/ reasonable/ right
8. likely/ reasonable/ right
9. unlikely/ crazy/ wrong
10.likely/ not crazy/ right
11. true/ reasonable/ good
12. likely/ reasonable/ good
13. true/ not crazy/ good
14. not likely/ unreasonable/ wrong
15. false/ crazy/ bad
16.true/ reasonable/ right
17. likely/ reasonable/ good
18. likely/ reasonable/ good
19. not likely/reasonable/ bad
20. likely/ unreasonable/ bad
21. likely/ reasonable/ good
22.likely/ not crazy/ bad
23. likely/ crazy/ bad
24. true/ reasonable/ bad
25. likely/ reasonable/ right
26. unlikely/ unreasonable/ wrong
27. likely/ not crazy/ bad
28. unlikely/ reasonable/ bad
29. false/ unreasonable/ bad
30. true/ reasonable/ bad
31. likely/ reasonable/ good
32. unlikely/ reasonable/ good
33. false/ creazy/ bad
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1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
2. True/Reasonable/Good
3. False/Reasonable/Bad
4. False/Reasonable/Bad
5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
7. True/Reasonable/Good
8. True/Reasonable/Good
9. True/Reasonable/Bad
10. True/Reasonable/Good
11. True/Reasonable/Good
12. True/Reasonable/Bad
13. False/Unreasonable/Bad
14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
15. True/Unreasonable/Bad
16. True/Reasonable/Good
17. True/Reasonable/Good
18. False/Reasonable/Good
19. False/Reasonable/Good
20. True/Unreasonable/Bad
21. False/Reasonable/Bad
22. True/Unreasonable/Bad
23. False/Unreasonable/Bad
24. True/Reasonable/Good
25. True/Reasonable/Good
26. True/Reasonable/Good
27. True/Reasonable/Good
28. True/Unreasonable/Bad
29. False/Unreasonable/Bad
30. False/Unreasonable/Bad
31. False/Reasonable/Good
32. True/Reasonable/Good
33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
35. True/Reasonable/Good
36. True/Reasonable/Good
37. False/Unreasonable/Bad
38. True/Reasonable/Good
39. True/Unreasonable/Bad
40. False/Unreasonable/Bad
41. True/Unreasonable/Bad
42. False/Unreasonable/Bad
43. True/Reasonable/Good
44. True/Unreasonable/Bad
45. True/Reasonable/Good
46. True/Reasonable/Good
47. True/Reasonable/Good
48. True/Reasonable/Good
49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
50. False/Unreasonable/Bad
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As a first comparison, I scanned all the reactions to Statement 46, which said:
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
The Statement generated these responses:
46. True/ unreasonable/ bad
46. true/ reasonable/ moral – martyr?
46. false reasonable right
46. true/reasonable/good
46. True / Reasonable / Good
46. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
46. True/Unreasonable/Good
46. true/ unreasonable/ bad
46. True/Reasonable/Bad
46) Reasonable, Right, Not Crazy
46. True/Reasonable/Good
46. True/Reasonable/Good
First, I should say the Statement is accurate and true. Dr. Adcock did improve his team’s accuracy significantly; his own volume of readings did drop; and he did remove himself from the reading team because (since he wasn’t reading enough films to statistically demonstrate his accuracy) he had to assume he was missing cancers. Most of us agreed on that.
All but five of us thought his decision was reasonable. After all, he had fired several other doctors whose volumes had dropped below testable; it seems the same standard should apply to all.
The five who thought the decision was unreasonable might believe that Adcock is a good enough doctor, with enough experience, and with a conscience that keeps him from making bad decisions, so that removing himself from the team was unnecessary (an interpretation supported by Capt’s surmise that he might be acting like a martyr).
The only answer that confuses me is the one commenter who thinks the decision was unreasonable but the outcome is moral or ethical. My take on that one is that it too is a reasonable way to think. The decision to remove himself from the team is probably overly cautious, maybe unnecessary (and therefore unreasonable), but in the business of detecting cancers, overcaution is certainly ethically defensible.
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